BEIJING, Jan 23, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - Donald Trump is back in the White House,
promising to use the United States's vast economic weight to hit back at
China for its alleged unfair trade practices and role in the deadly American
fentanyl crisis.

This week, the mercurial magnate said 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese
imports could kick in on February 1 -- and on the campaign trail touted a
levy as high as 60 percent.

China has warned that there are "no winners" in a trade war and vowed to
defend its economic interests.

Here's where the China-US trade relationship stands:

- How much trade is at stake? -

Trade between China and the United States -- the world's two largest
economies -- is vast, totalling more than $530 billion in the first eleven
months of 2024, according to Washington.

Over that same period, sales of Chinese goods to the United States totalled
more than $400 billion, second only to Mexico.

According to the Peterson Institute of International Economics (PIIE), China
is the dominant supplier of goods from electronics and electrical machinery,
to textiles and clothing.

But a yawning trade imbalance -- $270.4 billion for January to November last
year -- has long raised hackles in Washington.

As has China's vast state support for its industry, sparking accusations of
dumping, as well as its perceived mistreatment of US firms operating in its
territory.

But China's economy remains heavily reliant on exports to drive growth
despite official efforts to raise domestic consumption -- making its leaders
reluctant to change the status quo.

- What happened during Trump's first term? -

Trump stormed into the White House in 2016 vowing to get even with China,
launching a trade war that slapped significant tariffs on hundreds of
billions of dollars of Chinese goods.

China responded with retaliatory tariffs on American products -- particularly
affecting US farmers.

Key US demands were greater access to China's markets, broad reform of a
business playing field that heavily favours Chinese firms, and a loosening of
heavy state control by Beijing.

After long, fraught negotiations the two sides agreed what became known as
the "phase one" trade deal -- a ceasefire in the nearly two-year-old trade
war.

Under that agreement, Beijing agreed to import $200 billion worth of US
goods, including $32 billion in farm products and seafood.

But in the face of the pandemic and a US recession, analysts say Beijing fell
well short of that commitment.

"In the end, China bought only 58 percent of the US exports it had committed
to purchase under the agreement, not even enough to reach its import levels
from before the trade war," PIIE'S Chad P Brown wrote.

"Put differently, China bought none of the additional $200 billion of exports
Trump's deal had promised."

- How did things change under Biden? -
Trump's successor Joe Biden did not roll back increases imposed by his
predecessor, but took a more targeted approach when it came to tariff hikes.

Under Biden, Washington expanded efforts to curb exports of state-of-the-art
chips to China -- part of a broader effort to prevent sensitive US
technologies being used in Beijing's military arsenal.

His administration has also used tariffs to take aim at what it called
China's "industrial overcapacity" -- fears the country's industrial subsidies
for green energy, cars and batteries could flood global markets with cheap
goods.

Last May, Biden ordered $18 billion worth of imports from China be slapped
with tariffs, accusing Beijing of "cheating" rather than competing.

Under the hikes, tariffs on EVs quadrupled to 100 percent, while the tariff
for semiconductors will surge from 25 percent to 50 percent.

The measures also targeted strategic sectors such as batteries, critical
minerals and medical products.

Both sides have also launched investigations into the others' alleged unfair
trade practices with probes into dumping and state subsidies.

- What happens next? -

With Biden gone, all eyes are on whether Trump will follow through on these
threats -- or if the rhetoric was an opening gambit in negotiations.

Trump has long viewed tariffs as a bargaining tool -- an "all-purpose
bludgeon", according to a Wall Street Journal editorial.

He has also tied tariffs to the fate of Chinese-owned social media app TikTok
-- warning of retaliation if a deal cannot be struck to sell it.

Many breathed a sigh of relief when a "shock and awe" blitz of executive
orders signed on Trump's first day in office did not feature tariffs on
Chinese goods.

But Trump did order a sweeping review by top officials into a number of
Chinese trade practices -- with reports due by April 1.

"Although no immediate tariff hike is an upside surprise, extended
uncertainty may still weigh on confidence," HSBC economists wrote in a note
Wednesday.

"That said, the lack of concrete tariffs at this juncture may suggest that
Trump is open to further negotiations with China," they added.