WASHINGTON, Dec  29, 2023 (BSS/AFP) - With multiple US states hearing
challenges to Donald Trump's right to run in the 2024 election, his supporters
claim his enemies are tearing up democracy to prevent his return to the White
House.

Rulings in Colorado and Maine banning the ex-president from their primary
nominating contests under the Constitution's "insurrection clause" set off a
political earthquake that could upend the campaign.

But do they pose a genuine threat to Trump's presidential ambitions?

- Why Trump might be ineligible -

The US House of Representatives impeached the Republican tycoon for
inciting insurrection after he called on his supporters to march on the US
Capitol ahead of a deadly riot that delayed the certification of the 2020
election.

A large, bipartisan majority of the Senate agreed with the lower chamber's
finding, but the tally fell short of the two-thirds of members required for a
conviction, which would have barred Trump from seeking office again.

Federal prosecutors have since charged Trump with conspiracy over the
violence, and he is scheduled for trial in March.

Meanwhile, activists have brought court challenges nationwide to stop his
name appearing on ballots for state primaries under the 14th Amendment, which
bars people from office if they have taken an oath to defend the Constitution
but subsequently "engage in insurrection."

- Where is Trump barred from running? -

On December 19, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was ineligible
for the state's primary under the 14th Amendment's "insurrection clause."

Maine -- where the secretary of state, currently a Democrat, makes the
initial eligibility determination -- followed suit on Thursday.

Related challenges have been filed nationwide, with decisions pending in 14
states, according to national security website Lawfare's online
disqualification tracker.

- What happens next? -

Both states put their bans on hold while the legal process plays out --
meaning Trump will almost certainly appear on both ballots for their March 5
primaries.

Grassroots Republicans have challenged the ruling in Colorado and the Trump
campaign has indicated that it intends to appeal in both cases.

The Maine decision would go to the state's Superior Court first, while
Colorado's ruling has already been through the state system and would be
elevated directly to the US Supreme Court.

- What can the US Supreme Court do? -

The strongly conservative-leaning high court -- which includes three Trump
appointees -- can decline to review the Colorado case, meaning the Trump ban
would stand.

In reality, most analysts believe that Maine joining with Colorado removes
any doubt that the justices will act.

They would determine whether or not section three of the 14th Amendment --
the insurrection clause -- applies to a former president.

The court could also rule on whether the ban is automatic or would require
an act of Congress, and whether the 2021 storming of the Capitol and Trump's
role in it indeed qualify as insurrection.

- The effect of the bans -

Even if the Colorado and Maine bans stand, front-running Trump is expected
to be able to secure the Republican nomination comfortably without those
states, so his path to the White House would not necessarily be impeded.

But an adverse Supreme Court ruling that is binding on lower courts
nationwide -- rather than a narrow procedural ruling affecting only Colorado --
could torpedo the ex-president's primary challenge.

He would then have to decide whether to run for president as a third-party
candidate.

But even if the high court doesn't weigh in on the state level rulings and
the damage is limited to Colorado and Maine, the justices could leave the door
open to challenges to Trump's eligibility for the general election.

So he could well find himself barred from challenging President Joe Biden
in November, even if he wins the Republican nomination.

- Timetable -

The gears of the US justice system grind notoriously slowly -- particularly
at the top.

The Supreme Court has not indicated whether it intends to take up the
Colorado appeal, nor how long it would take to rule on Trump's eligibility if
it did. Trump's opponents have stressed the importance of an urgent decision.

The court can act quickly when required: Its ruling ending Florida's vote
count in the 2000 election -- handing victory to George W. Bush -- took less
than a month.