BRUSSELS, Belgium, Sept 30, 2024 (BSS/AFP) - Incoming NATO chief Mark Rutte
rings new leadership this week to one of the world's most powerful-sounding
roles – helming the nuclear-armed Atlantic alliance.

But even if the former Dutch prime minister wanted to shake things up after
taking over from Jens Stoltenberg, he probably couldn't.

The reality of the NATO job means Rutte will be heading a risk-averse
civilian bureaucracy, with hard power ultimately residing with member
countries and above all the United States.

And in many ways NATO's 32 nations -- by swapping one mild-mannered, middle-
aged, northern European male ex-premier for another -- have opted for more of
the same, to steer the alliance in troubled times.

"In such a difficult geopolitical situation, keeping continuation and the
same foreign policy and security line is very important," a senior NATO
diplomat told AFP, talking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal
deliberations.

During his more than 10 years at the helm, Stoltenberg won plaudits for his
calm stewardship of the sometimes fractious alliance.

The Norwegian helped keep then US president Donald Trump on board, threw his
weight behind Ukraine while making sure NATO didn't get dragged into war with
Russia, and kicked off an overhaul of the alliance's defences to face Moscow.

"Allies were looking for somebody who has many of the same qualities as
Stoltenberg and will continue in the same direction: prime minister, well-
connected, long experience, good address book, has handled Trump," said Jamie
Shea, a former senior NATO official now with the Chatham House think tank.

Rutte, a favourite of key powers the US, Britain, France and Germany, ticked
all those boxes.

A veteran who led complex coalitions in the Netherlands for 13 years, he has
ample experience that can be put to use keeping countries with disparate --
and often competing -- interests on the same page.

"He is a consensus builder with an unflinching commitment to the
transatlantic alliance," a senior US official said.

The Dutchman has been a stalwart backer of Kyiv and wasn't afraid to talk
frankly to Trump, who could make a comeback after elections in November.

- Consensus straitjacket? -

Similarities aside, diplomats say the straight-talking Rutte should bring a
breath of fresh air to the alliance after Stoltenberg's long tenure.

But Rutte would likely struggle to get through major changes.

While the job of running the alliance sounds like a potent role, the
secretary general actually only heads the civilian bureaucracy of some 1,500
staff.

Military power rests with the member countries -- mainly in the hands of an
American general as Supreme Allied Commander in Europe.

The NATO head often serves more as a spokesperson-in-chief for the
organisation, with Stoltenberg known for carefully parsing the position he
could stake out.

All decisions at NATO need to be agreed by each member and the person at the
top is constrained by how far allies -- and particularly Washington -- are
willing to go.

The direction for the next year was set at the last summit in Washington in
July.

"NATO is a consensus organisation. Everything, absolutely everything, from
the most mundane to the most strategic, is decided by consensus," said Ian
Lesser of the German Marshall Fund think tank.

"So the scope for individual secretary generals to reshape what NATO does and
how it does it is obviously very limited."

That said, Rutte does have some levers at his disposal to try to drive
through priorities.

"The secretary general can be instrumental in bringing issues to the agenda
for discussion," Lesser said.

"That's actually a big role."

Stoltenberg used his pulpit to press allies on supporting Ukraine, paying
more attention to the impact of climate change or strengthening ties with
partners in Asia-Pacific.

Diplomats say one area where Rutte could push is trying to improve
coordination between the European Union and NATO -- long hamstrung by
alliance member Turkey's standoff with Cyprus.

But Rutte's main chance to shape the office will likely come if the political
situation gets stormier -- with Trump's return to office or a major change in
Ukraine.

Then he'll need all his diplomatic guile -- and lengthy contact list -- to
keep the ears and commitment of NATO's diverse leaders.

"The skill and personality of a secretary general can make a difference,
especially under conditions when the alliance is being tested," Lesser said.