ISLAMABAD, Jan 15, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - Imran Khan, Pakistan's most popular 
politician, is facing a 14-year prison term this month in a case his party 
says is being used to pressure him into silence.

The former prime minister, long a source of frustration for the powerful 
military, has been in custody since August 2023 and faces a slew of legal 
cases he says are politically motivated.

A looming verdict for graft linked to a welfare foundation he set up with his 
wife, the Al-Qadir Trust, is the longest-running of those cases, with a 
verdict postponed on Monday for a third time.

"The Al-Qadir Trust case, like previous cases, is being dragged on only to 
pressure me," Khan said this month in one of his frequent statements railing 
against authorities and posted on social media by his team.

"But I demand its immediate resolution."

Analysts say the military establishment is using the sentence as a bargaining 
chip with Khan, whose popularity undermines a shaky coalition government that 
kept his party from power in elections last year.

"The establishment's deal is he comes out and stays quiet, stays decent, 
until the next election," said Ayesha Siddiqa, a London-based author and 
analyst on Pakistan's military.

- 'Politically motivated' -

Analysts say the military are Pakistan's kingmakers, although the generals 
deny interfering in politics.

Khan said he had once been offered a three-year exile abroad and was also 
"indirectly approached" recently about the possibility of house arrest at his 
sprawling home on the outskirts of the capital.

"We can assume from the delays that this is a politically motivated 
judgement. It is a Damocles sword over him," Khan's legal adviser Faisal 
Fareed Chaudhry told AFP.

"The case has lost its credibility," he said, adding that Khan will not 
accept any deal to stay silent.

Khan has been convicted and sentenced four times in other cases. Two cases 
have been overturned by the Supreme Court, while judges have suspended the 
sentences from the other two.

The specialist anti-graft "accountability court" is set to announce the 
verdict and sentence in the welfare foundation case on Friday, two days after 
government envoys are scheduled to meet leaders from Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-
e-Insaf (PTI) party to ease tensions.

The PTI has previously sworn to refuse talks with a government its leaders 
claim is illegitimate, alleging the coalition seized power by rigging 
February 2024 polls. 

They say they will only take part if political prisoners are released and an 
independent inquiry is launched into allegations of a heavy-handed response 
by authorities to PTI protests.

Otherwise, Khan has threatened to pull his party from the negotiations and 
continue with a campaign of civil disobedience that has frequently brought 
Islamabad to a standstill.

The most recent protests flared around November 26, when the PTI allege at 
least 10 of their activists were shot dead. The government says five security 
force members were killed in the chaos.

"The government would like to appear legitimate, and for that they need PTI 
to sit down in talks with them," said Asma Faiz, associate professor of 
political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

"Ideally, they would be looking to offer some relief to Imran Khan and his 
party to appease the domestic and international criticism," she told AFP.

- 'PTI won't budge' -

For now, it appears to be a stalemate, said Michael Kugelman, South Asia 
Institute director at The Wilson Center in Washington.

"The army might be willing to give Khan a deal that gets him out of jail, but 
Khan wouldn't accept the likely conditions of his freedom," he told AFP.

"Another problem is I can't imagine the government agreeing to an 
investigation of November 26. But PTI won't budge on that demand."

A stint in exile is common in the trajectory of political leaders in Pakistan 
who fall out of favour with the military and find themselves before the 
courts, only to return to power later.

Three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif served only a fraction of a sentence 
for corruption, spending several years in London before returning to Pakistan 
in late 2023.

Former and current president Asif Ali Zardari moved to Dubai after his party 
was rebuked by the generals.

Both men are now considered the chief architects of the ruling coalition.

But exile might not fit with the carefully worked image of Khan, whose 
political rise was based on the promise of replacing decades of entrenched 
dynastic politics.

"I will live and die in Pakistan," Khan said in a statement shared by his 
lawyers. "I will fight for my country's freedom until my last breath, and I 
expect my nation to do the same."