TALLINN, March 26, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - Estonian lawmakers will decide on Wednesday whether to amend the constitution to ban non-EU residents from voting in municipal elections, a measure targeting the Baltic state's large Russian-speaking minority.

The parliamentary vote is in response to security concerns over Russia's war in Ukraine. Estonia has been a steadfast supporter of Kyiv since the invasion in February 2022. 

Various Estonian political parties have proposed excluding Russians and Belarusians, and sometimes stateless individuals living in Estonia, from elections, fearing foreign interference. 

"If Russia had been, from our point of view, sensible, no one would have initiated this," said Rein Toomla, a political expert from the Johan Skytte Institute. 

"It's very clearly against Russia and... Russian citizens living in Estonia have fallen victim to this because Russia has acted this way, not them," he told AFP.

Nearly 80,000 Russian citizens hold a residence permit in the former Soviet republic of 1.3 million people, which regained its independence in 1991.

There are also nearly 60,000 stateless people registered in the Baltic state.

Permanent residents of Estonia currently have a constitutional right to vote in local elections, but not general elections.

- 'Imperialistic ambitions' -

Relations between Moscow and the Baltic states -- Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania -- have soured for years, fuelled by Russia's heightened tensions with the West.

Both Estonia and Latvia have sizeable Russian-speaking minorities that are sometimes at odds with the national governments.

There have been concerns that Moscow could seek to exploit these differences to destabilise the countries, both EU and NATO members.

Estonia said this month it would raise defence spending next year to "at least" five percent of GDP, citing the threat from neighbouring Russia.

"Russia has not changed its goals and imperialistic ambitions. This is a real threat to both Europe and NATO," Prime Minister Kristen Michal said.

Michal has argued that "Russian and Belarusian citizens see what Russia is doing in Ukraine... differently from Estonian citizens". 

"It makes sense that if a person wants to be a citizen of Russia... they shouldn't expect to be part of the discussion about Estonia," he told public broadcaster ERR in January.

Voting rights are just the latest symbolic act of cutting ties with Russia. 

The Baltic states began removing and demolishing some of their Soviet-era war memorials in response to Russia's invasion.

This prompted outrage in Moscow, which declared former Estonian leader -- and current EU foreign policy chief -- Kaja Kallas and several other European officials as "wanted" over their alleged involvement in the destruction of the memorials.

- Security threat -

Estonia's 101 lawmakers will examine two slightly different versions of the voting amendment.

One would ban third country nationals -- who are neither citizens of the European Union or the visa-free travel Schengen zone -- and stateless individuals from voting in municipal elections including one in October.

The other proposed amendment would allow stateless individuals to still vote one last time in the upcoming election, but third country nationals would already be banned. 

The prime minister backs the less restrictive version, as do a larger number of MPs. 

Supporters argue it would give stateless individuals enough time to apply for Estonian citizenship. 

When Estonia gained independence from the Soviet Union, around a third of the people living on its territory were from Russian-speaking minorities whose families had immigrated from other Soviet republics.

They did not qualify for citizenship because of a lack of blood ties to Estonia. Citizenship also requires applicants to pass an Estonian language test. 

The parliament will vote Wednesday in two stages.

Lawmakers will first need to approve a so-called urgent amendment of the constitution, which requires a greenlight from four out of five MPs present. 

If approved, the parliament will then vote on each version of the amendment, requiring at least 68 votes to pass. 

The governing coalition only has 66 votes, which means they will require opposition support to amend the constitution.