VILNIUS, May 12, 2024 (BSS/AFP) - Lithuania votes Sunday in a presidential
election dominated by security concerns with the main candidates all agreed
the NATO and EU member should boost defence spending to counter the perceived
threat from neighbouring Russia.

The Baltic state of 2.8 million people fears it could be next in Russia's
crosshairs if Moscow wins its war against Ukraine, which began with an
invasion in 2022.

While the top three contenders agree on defence, they have diverging views on
social issues and on Lithuania's relations with China, which have been
strained for years over Taiwan.

"Lithuania's understanding of the Russian threat is unanimous and
unquestionable, so the main candidates are following suit," Eastern Europe
Studies Centre director Linas Kojala told AFP.

Polls close at 1700 GMT and the result is expected later on Sunday --
although a run-off on May 26 will probably be needed as no candidate is
expected to win an overall majority.

Opinion polls give the incumbent, 59-year-old former banker Gitanas Nauseda,
a comfortable lead over the other seven candidates, who include Prime
Minister Ingrida Simonyte and prominent lawyer Ignas Vegele.

The Lithuanian president steers defence and foreign policy, attending EU and
NATO summits, but must consult with the government and parliament on
appointing the most senior officials.

Lithuania, a former Soviet republic, is a top donor to Ukraine and a big
defence spender, with a military budget currently equal to 2.75 percent of
GDP.

- Defence budget -

The Simonyte-led government is expected to come forward with proposals within
several weeks that could help increase defence spending even further to three
percent.

Lithuania notably intends to use the funds to purchase tanks and additional
air defence systems, and to host a German brigade, as Berlin plans to
complete the stationing of around 5,000 troops by 2027.

None of the top candidates appear to question these plans, but Vegele has
pledged to ask for a defence audit to effectively manage finances if he is
elected.

Nauseda is projected to receive more than 35 percent of the vote in the first
round, according to the latest opinion poll, and is expected to prevail in
any eventual run-off.

Vegele, a 48-year-old lawyer who gained prominence after speaking out against
mandated vaccination during the pandemic, presents himself as an alternative
to established politicians and vows more transparent governance.

Simonyte, 49, is a fiscal conservative with liberal views on social issues.
She notably supports same-sex partnerships, which still stir controversy in
the predominantly Catholic country.

Simonyte is running for president for a second time after losing to Nauseda
in a run-off in 2019.

"Simonyte is supported by conservative party voters and liberal people, while
Nauseda is a candidate of the left in terms of economic and social policy,"
Vilnius University analyst Ramunas Vilpisauskas told AFP.

Meanwhile, "Vegele will get support from those who simply want change", he
added.

- Tensions over Taiwan -

The uneasy relationship between Nauseda and his rival Simonyte's ruling
conservatives has at times triggered foreign policy debates, most notably on
Lithuania's relations with China.

Bilateral ties turned tense in 2021, when Vilnius allowed Taiwan to open a de
facto embassy under the island's name in a departure from the common
diplomatic practice of using the name of the capital Taipei to avoid angering
Beijing.

China, which considers Taiwan a part of its territory and bristles at support
for the island that might lend it any sense of international legitimacy,
downgraded diplomatic relations with Vilnius and blocked its exports.

This sparked controversy among Lithuanian politicians, with some urging a
restoration of relations for the sake of the Lithuanian economy.

"China's reaction to the opening of the office was harsher than predicted,
and that sparked the debate," Kojala said, adding that China's response was
hurting local businesses.