MEXICO CITY, May 19, 2024 (BSS/AFP) - Berta Garcia feels exhausted and ill
after eight years of searching for her son Manuel -- one of the more than
100,000 people missing in violence-wracked Mexico.

With little hope of finding Manuel alive, she is in no mood to listen to
candidates' security proposals ahead of presidential and legislative
elections coming up on June 2.

Politicians are full of promises "but when the time comes they don't fulfill
them," said Garcia, whose son disappeared in 2016 in the northern border
state of Chihuahua.

Spiraling criminal violence has seen more than 450,000 people murdered since
the government of then president Felipe Calderon launched a controversial
military offensive against drug cartels in 2006.

Many Mexicans see insecurity as the most urgent challenge for the next
government, according to surveys.

- What's Lopez Obrador's legacy? -

Outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has prioritized addressing the
root causes of crime such as poverty and inequality -- a policy that the
left-wing populist calls "hugs not bullets."

Despite his efforts, Mexico's homicide rate remains above 23 per 100,000
inhabitants, higher than the Latin American average, according to the InSight
Crime think tank.

Powerful cartels control swathes of Mexico and are involved not just in drug
trafficking but other crimes including people smuggling, extortion and fuel
theft.

Criminals "are realizing that it's possible for them to grow more because
there's no strategy to stop it," Falko Ernst, an analyst at the International
Crisis Group think tank, told AFP.

Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, a professor at George Mason University in the
United States, described the security situation as "a very serious problem
that is not going to be solved by providing resources for the youth."

- What are candidates proposing? -

Ruling-party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum -- who appears on course to become
Mexico's first woman president -- wants to continue Lopez Obrador's strategy
of tackling crime at its roots.

"Instead of declaring war (on drug cartels), we build peace," she said.

The former Mexico City mayor has pledged to strengthen the National Guard as
well as intelligence agencies, and to improve coordination with police and
prosecutors.

Opposition hopeful Xochitl Galvez has put insecurity at the heart of her
campaign, saying: "Hugs for criminals are over."

She has vowed to capture most-wanted criminals, recruit more police, and
ensure that they receive an adequate salary in a country where corruption is
considered rife among poorly paid security personnel.

Galvez has pledged to double the size of the National Guard, withdraw
soldiers from civilian projects to focus on fighting criminal groups, and to
build a new maximum security prison.

- What do experts say? -

For justice to be served, judges, police, prosecutors and intelligence
agencies must coordinate better -- something that Sheinbaum made progress on
as Mexico City mayor from 2018-2023, according to experts.

The challenge is to do so across the country of 129 million people, which
would require considerable resources to repair a "broken justice chain," said
Carlos Rodriguez, an independent security and intelligence consultant.

A major issue is corruption within the criminal justice system, experts say.

"If we don't fight corruption and impunity, things are not going to be
solved," Correa-Cabrera said at a roundtable hosted by the Wilson Center.

Ernst thinks the issue could be tackled with the creation of enclaves where
uncorrupted state actors could work and focus resources on Mexico's most
violent regions.

- What would a Trump return mean? -

Mexico is already under strong pressure from US President Joe Biden's
administration to curb trafficking in illicit fentanyl, a synthetic opioid
that is considered responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths each
year.

With the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House if he wins
the US election in November, experts say even stronger pressure on drug
trafficking and other issues is a real possibility.

"Mexico has to have a Plan B ready to comprehensively rethink the bilateral
relationship in light of this scenario," said Arturo Sarukhan, a former
Mexican ambassador to the United States.

Correa-Cabrera sees a Trump comeback as a potential "game changer" in
Mexican-US relations.

"If he gets elected there's going to be more pressure for 'mano dura' (tough)
policies," she said, while noting that Trump previously had an "extremely
stable" relationship with Lopez Obrador.