TBILISI, Oct 19, 2024 (BSS/AFP) - Georgians vote next Saturday in watershed parliamentary elections, with an extraordinary union of pro-Western opposition forces facing off against a ruling party accused of democratic backsliding and shifting towards Russia.

Brussels has warned the October 26 vote will be crucial for the fate of Georgia's fledgling democracy and its long-held aspiration for European Union membership.

Opinion polls indicate opposition parties could get enough votes to form a coalition government to supplant the ruling Georgian Dream party, controlled by powerful billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.

"Georgia's traditionally fractured opposition forces have managed to forge an unprecedented united front against Georgian Dream," said analyst Gela Vasadze at Georgia's Strategic Analysis Centre.

"But if the ruling party attempts to stay in power regardless of the election outcome, then there is the risk of post-electoral turmoil."

The current government says it wants to win a supermajority in parliament to allow it to pass a constitutional ban on the pro-Western opposition.

In power since 2012, Georgian Dream initially pursued a liberal pro-Western policy agenda.

But over the last two years the party has reversed course.

Its campaign has centred on a conspiracy theory about a "global war party" that controls Western institutions and is seeking to drag Georgia into the Russia-Ukraine war.

The party's passage of a controversial "foreign influence law" this spring, targeting civil society, sparked weeks of mass street protests and was criticised as a Kremlin-style measure to silence dissent.

The move prompted Brussels to freeze Georgia's EU accession process, while Washington imposed sanctions on dozens of Georgian officials.

Earlier this month, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell cautioned that Georgian Dream's actions "signal a shift towards authoritarianism".

He called the upcoming polls "a crucial test for democracy in Georgia and its European Union path."

- 'Existential' election -

Ivanishvili, the ruling party's honorary chairman who appoints prime ministers from among his loyalists, accused opposition parties of "trying to seize power by opening a second front (against Russia) in Georgia" with the help of foreign partners.

"On October 26, we must once again save the country and choose between slavery and freedom, submission to foreign powers and sovereignty, war and peace," he told a campaign rally in the Black Sea city of Batumi.

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has expressed confidence that "the majority of Georgians will vote for Georgian Dream so that we can prevent Georgia's Ukrainisation".

He has vowed to lead Georgia towards EU membership, saying ties with the West will normalise once the Ukraine war ends.

But the latest polls show that four leading opposition alliances are poised to garner enough votes to form a coalition.

The grouping includes Georgia's main opposition force, jailed ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement (UNM) and Akhali, a recently formed party headed by former UNM leaders.

Along with several smaller parties, they have signed up to a pro-European policy platform outlining far-reaching electoral, judicial and law enforcement reforms.

They have agreed to form an interim multi-party government to advance the reforms -- if they command enough seats in parliament -- before calling fresh elections.

Earlier this month, President Salome Zurabishvili, who opposes the current government, told AFP she was "quite optimistic" ahead of the "existential" parliamentary elections.

- 'Not Georgian at all' -

UNM leader Tina Bokuchava told AFP that "a ruling party that threatens to ban opposition parties is doomed".

"On October 26, Georgians will defend the country's European destiny, its democracy, and will get rid of the Georgian Dream, which is not Georgian at all but pro-Russian," she said.

Nestled between the Caucasus Mountains and the Black Sea, Georgia was once considered a rare example of a democracy among ex-Soviet nations.

But elections in the country of some four million regularly spark mass protests.

A poll conducted by US pollster Edison Research showed 33 percent of Georgians would vote for Georgian Dream, while the four opposition alliances combined are set to garner 55 percent of the vote.

No other party is expected to clear the five-percent electoral threshold needed to secure seats in the 150-member legislature.

Voting will begin at 0400 GMT and end at 1600 GMT, with exit polls set to be released on closing.

The elections, held under a proportional party list system, will be monitored by international observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.