OSLO, Oct 28, 2024 (BSS/AFP) - A group of scientists warned Monday of the
greatly underestimated risk of a collapse of ocean currents in the Atlantic
which could have catastrophic consequences for the Nordic countries as the
region's leaders gathered in Iceland.

In an open letter addressed to the Nordic Council, which is meeting this week
in Iceland's capital Reykjavik, the scientists said they wanted to bring
attention "to the serious risk of a major ocean circulation change in the
Atlantic."

The "Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation" (AMOC) is a complex system
of ocean currents, including the Gulf Stream, which carries heat from warmer
regions to the north and is therefore crucial to living conditions in the
Arctic.

The collapse of the system -- which according to a recent study has already
weakened -- is one of the tipping points that concern scientists because of
cascading effects they could trigger.

But there is no consensus on when this is likely to happen. The sixth
assessment report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), expressed "medium confidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation will not collapse abruptly before 2100."

However, the signatories of the open letter, argued that new research
indicated that the risk had so far been "greatly underestimated," and the
"passing of this tipping point is a serious possibility already in the next
few decades."

They warned the impact on Nordic countries "would likely be catastrophic,
including major cooling in the region while surrounding regions warm."

That in turn would "likely lead to unprecedented extreme weather" and
"potentially threaten the viability of agriculture in northwestern Europe,"
they added.

But the impact would likely be felt globally, they said, with possible shifts
in tropical rainfall belts and major additional rises in sea levels.

The Nordic Council gathers Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden and
their leaders are meeting in Reykjavik on Monday and Tuesday for a summit to
which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also been invited.