WASHINGTON, Nov 1, 2024 (BSS/AFP) - Donald Trump has made plain his fondness
for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who has in his own way returned the favor.
But if Trump comes back to the White House, their divergent interests could
still make the relationship complicated.

Ahead of Tuesday's razor-tight election, Vice President Kamala Harris, the
Democratic nominee, has hammered in on Trump's long history with Putin,
telling a rally Tuesday that the Russian leader and other strongmen were
"rooting" for Trump, knowing he is "easy to manipulate with flattery and
favor."

Trump has repeatedly praised Putin, whose hyper-masculine style and professed
attachment to traditional values has increasingly found favor among some US
Christian conservatives.

At a rally in March, Trump praised Putin as "smart" -- yet also faulted his
February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, saying that sending troops to the border
had been "a hell of a way to negotiate" but that going in was a "big mistake"
that did not turn out well.

The Republican tycoon nonetheless has mused that Russia will eventually win
and scoffed at the billions of dollars in US assistance sent to Ukraine under
President Joe Biden and Harris.

Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, has gone so far as to say he does not care
what happens in Ukraine, believing that the United States should focus on
confronting China instead.

Trump has boasted that he can quickly end the Ukraine war, with his aides
suggesting forcing Ukraine into territorial concessions by conditioning US
assistance.

He has dismissed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a great
"salesman." When Zelensky requested a meeting with Trump in September, Trump
told the wartime leader how he enjoys a "very good relationship" with Putin.

A new book by the investigative reporter Bob Woodward asserts that Trump and
Putin may have spoken as many as seven times during Biden's presidency, and
that Trump while in office secretly sent the Russian leader then-scarce Covid
tests.

- 'Vladimir, let's talk' -

Putin in September said with a wry smile that he supported Harris, an
endorsement believed by virtually no one.

Former president and Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev more recently hailed Trump
for blaming the war on Zelensky, although he cast doubt on whether the
Republican would change the position of the United States.

"It's clear that Trump is Russia's preference, no matter what they say," the
Russian political expert Konstantin Kalachov said.

"Trump clearly wants to negotiate and there is no love between him and
Zelensky," he said.

Trump was impeached for the first time in 2019 over delaying assistance to
Ukraine as he pressed Zelensky to dig up dirt on the Biden family.

In one of one of the most widely criticized moments of his tumultuous 2017-
2021 presidency, Trump at a joint news conference appeared to take the
Russian leader's word over US intelligence assessments that Russia tried to
tilt the 2016 election in his favor.

Leon Aron, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, expected
that Trump, if elected, would quickly seek another summit with Putin.

Based on Trump's past behavior and statements, "I think the initial step will
be some sort of very dramatic personal diplomacy -- 'Vladimir, let's talk. We
could resolve this.'"

But Aron said it was less certain whether Putin, whomever he prefers as US
president, would budge on policy.

"Putin made global opposition to the United States a key to his domestic
legitimacy and popularity," Aron said. "He is now proclaiming himself and his
country heirs to the Soviet Union -- a great superpower."

"So that policy strategically will continue. Putin cannot change it without
changing his regime," he said.

Putin would gladly accept a quick Ukraine agreement if it validates seizure
of land and allows Russian troops to remain. But Trump would then face
pressure from the US public, Congress and possibly his own advisors who would
see him as negotiating a bad deal, Aron said.

"I think his macho image would argue against essentially accepting a defeat
of American interests in Ukraine."