BEIJING, Nov 27, 2024 (BSS/AFP) - China's coal consumption could peak by
2025 as the world's top consumer of the fossil fuel ramps up its push for
clean energy, a report published on Wednesday said.

The country -- the largest greenhouse gas emitter -- remains heavily reliant
on coal despite installing renewable energy capacity at record speed.

But while coal remains king in China's energy mix, there are signs the
world's second-biggest economy may be weaning itself off the fossil fuel.

Coal power permits fell 83 percent in the first half of this year, and no new
coal-based steelmaking projects were approved in the same period.

And 52 percent of experts surveyed for a report by think tanks Centre for
Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), based in Finland, and the
International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS), based in
Australia, expect China's coal consumption to peak next year.

The percentage of experts surveyed this year who believe that China's coal
consumption has already hit its maximum have also more than doubled this year
from last year.

"Achieving carbon neutrality in a rapidly growing economy like China is no
easy feat, but the country's substantial efforts are starting to bear fruit,"
ISETS' president Xunpeng Shi said.

Significantly more experts also think that carbon dioxide emissions in the
country have already peaked or will top out by 2025, according to the study.

- Hitting targets -

Experts have become increasingly optimistic that China will be able to wean
itself of polluting greenhouse gases in recent years, with breakneck
installation helping Beijing hit its wind and solar energy capacity targets
six years ahead of schedule.

Despite this, there is still "little clarity on China's emissions pathway",
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA said.

This leaves open the possibility of emissions increasing until 2030 and "very
slow" reductions after that, he added.

China's demand for coal also still jumped last year, driving a global
increase.

Coal-fired power generation is projected to grow again this year in China,
albeit at the lowest rate in almost a decade, according to the International
Energy Agency.

Energy consumption growth is also continuing to outpace GDP growth and is
"faster than in the transition pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement",
said the CREA report.

"China will need to either speed up renewable energy deployment even further
or guide economic development in a less energy-intensive direction,"
Myllyvirta said.

China aims to peak its planet-warming emissions by 2030 and reach net zero
three decades later.

The 2015 Paris Agreement requires countries to submit increasingly deep
emission cutting plans every five years, known as Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs). China is due to submit its updated NDC by February next
year.

According to an earlier CREA report, China must set a "strong but achievable
target of reducing emissions by at least 30 percent" by 2035.

In November, officials voted to pass an energy law, saying it would "actively
and steadily promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".