REYKJAVIK, Dec 1, 2024 (BSS/AFP) - Icelanders voted on Saturday after the collapse of a fraught coalition prompted snap legislative elections, where early results showed the Social Democrats leading the ruling Independence Party.

With the ballots of more than a quarter of eligible voters counted, the Social Democratic Alliance -- led by Kristrun Frostadottir -- were ahead with 22.8 percent of the vote, according to broadcaster RUV.

If the results hold, the party would more than double the support it saw in the last election in 2021 -- when it got 9.9 percent.

"There will be changes to the governance of the country. That is clear," Frostadottir told an election party while cautioning that votes were still being counted.

Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson cast his vote just after 10:30 am at a polling station set up in the Myrin sports centre in a southern suburb of Reykjavik.

His Independence Party was trailing the Social Democrats with 21.9 percent.

In third place was the Liberal Reform Party with 14.0 percent.
Benediktsson's three-party, left-right coalition resigned in October.

The Independence Party, the Left-Green Movement and the centre-right Progressive Party were divided on a range of issues but broke down over the handling of migrants and asylum seekers.

But in a country battling inflation and high interest rates where some 268,000 people are eligible to vote, the economy, housing and healthcare have been foremost on voters' minds.

"I feel we need change," 48-year-old film producer Grimar Jonsson, told AFP in Reykjavik on Friday.

Jonsson said he hoped the country would be "getting rid of so-called old-fashioned political parties".

There had been fears that heavy snowfall and strong winds could interfere with the election, and images showed some voters wading through drifts to cast their ballots.

But Kristin Edwald, chair of the National Electoral Commission, told broadcaster RUV that polling stations would keep their opening hours, though difficult road conditions could delay the delivery of ballots for counting.

- Immigration -

Despite causing the demise of the government, immigration has not been a galvanising issue in the country where one in five residents is foreign-born.

"It is very prominent in the public debate amongst politicians, but still it does not seem to be an issue that people are putting at the front of their list of important issues," Eirikur Bergmann, a politics professor at Bifrost University, told AFP.

According to a Gallup poll published in early November, only 32 percent of respondents listed immigration as a key issue and only 18 percent included asylum issues.

By contrast, healthcare, economic issues and housing were top concerns for more than 60 percent.

Broadcaster RUV reported that an AI chatbot set up to answer questions about the election had mostly been asked about housing and tax issues.
Few Icelandic parties have left their time in power unscathed since the 2008 financial crisis -- which hit Iceland's over-indebted banks.

"In the last 15 years, voters in Iceland have been extremely critical of their governments and voted against the government in all elections except one," Olafur Hardarson, professor of political science at the University of Iceland, told AFP.

The exception was Katrin Jakobsdottir of the Left-Green Movement, who held on as prime minister in the last election.

Benediktsson took over as prime minister in April 2024 after Jakobsdottir resigned to run for the presidency, which she failed to win.

Early results had the Left-Green Movement losing all its parliamentary seats as it had only received 2.3 percent of the vote, falling below the five percent cutoff to enter parliament.

- New coalition -

In Iceland, there isn't a "culture" of minority governments, Bergmann explained, meaning that parties will try to shore up a majority government via a coalition.

According to Hardarson, one likely coalition would be the Social Democratic Alliance and the Liberal Reform Party -- along with one or two others -- as their policies are relatively close.

But he noted: "This is difficult to predict because in Iceland the coalition game is relatively open."

This year, Iceland has experienced more than political turmoil.

The southwestern Reykjanes peninsula, which had not seen a volcanic eruption for eight centuries prior to March 2021, has had seven eruptions this year -- including one last week that is still spewing lava.

The eruptions have led to multiple evacuations of the fishing village of Grindavik, and of Iceland's famed Blue Lagoon hot spa.