By Anisur Rahman with Harun Al Nasif

DHAKA, Dec 28, 2024 (BSS) – The seismic events of 2024 have set the global political stage for a transformative year ahead. From dramatic political upheavals in South Asia to power shifts in the Middle East and heightened US-China rivalry, the interplay of regional and international developments underscores a world in flux. These dynamics are set to shape the global narrative in 2025 and beyond.

The ousting of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh's long-serving Prime Minister, marked a defining moment in South Asia's political landscape. The seven-week student-led uprising under the banner of the Anti-Discrimination Students Movement culminated in her flight to India.
 
This revolt, fuelled by public frustration over years of political repression and economic mismanagement, left the nearly 16-year Awami League government regime widely dubbed as a "fascist"
 
But the globe simultaneously witnessed an eventful 2024 in its political and economic landscape posing questions how 2025 could shape Bangladesh, set courses for the wars around the world or can peace be found in the Middle East and Ukraine and whether the global business landscape will continue to face uncertainty.
 
The dramatic election of Donald Trump for the second time in the US presidency, fall of Assad regime in Syria amid the inhumane onslaughts on Palestinians by Israeli troops and related tensions over Iran and its allied forces in the Middle East and continued uncertainty in global business landscape are major issues which emerged in outgoing 2024.
 
Bangladesh, South and South East Asia:
 
The change in Bangladesh political landscape visibly impacted the strategic balance in South Asia particularly. Since the Bay of Bengal is the major gateway for the western hemisphere to South and Southeast Asia, analysts now awaited seeing the stance of the United States under the new presidency regarding South Asia.
 
"But I don't think the US policy regarding South Asia and particularly Bangladesh will see any significant change . . . Washington will be willing to see Bangladesh with its own lens," former diplomat ambassador Humayun Kabir told BSS.
 
Foreign relation experts say they await seeing India's relationship with the US alongside the China and Myanmar factors as these would feature the geopolitics in the region in coming days. Bangladesh, as an Indian neighbour and having a close proximity to China has crucial geopolitical significance. 
 

Beyond South Asia:

The world, however, would possibly wait to see one of the most important geopolitical phenomenon involving China and its relations with the US under the second term presidency of Trump, who, however, has invited Xi Jinping too along with other foreign leaders to his January 20 inauguration.
 
According to most foreign relation analysts Trump's return to the White House will loom over Asia in 2025, as the region's leaders ponder how far he will pursue a renewed trade war with China and what impact his unpredictable administration will have on key flashpoints like the South China Sea and Taiwan.
 
Once his inauguration is made, geopolitical relations with Russia and China were likely to be Trump's top foreign policy issues in line with his earlier declared priorities as they caused a burden for America while he hinted to slap an heightened tariff on Chinese and Indian products.
 
 The Beijing-brokered deal between long time foes of Saudi Arabia and Iran is a major example of China's growing political role in global political landscape.
 
 But many western analysts, however, think China might be the less urgent issue for Trump though it is crucial for the US, the global economy and international balance of power. 
 
The analysts say American position on Ukraine will flow from what relationship to play for with Russia and Vladimir Putin while they anticipated that Trump would push a "land-for-peace" deal with Ukraine, largely resetting ties with Moscow.
 
Since Trump indicated he might pursue a Ukraine peace deal with Moscow cutting support for Kyiv altogether, the linkages between the US, China, Russia, North Korea and Europe are likely to come into sharper focus in 2025.
 
Pyongyang off late continued to get prominence in global media as its leader Kim Jong Un appeared more belligerent than ever, sending troops and weapons to fight for Russia against Ukraine while developing nuclear weapons at home.

Middle East:

Amid fears of mounting tragedy in Gaza by Israeli forces, the sudden development in Syria with the fall of Bashar al Asad regime emerged as a new phenomenon in the Middle East.
 
But whatever the domestic scenario of Syria will be, the change is likely to reshape the balance of power in the troubled region and beyond particularly implicating Iran and Russia which backed the previous regime. 

UK-based Chatham House in an analysis commented Syria's challenges are even greater than those Libya faced in 2011 saying "social divisions and communal rifts run significantly deeper in Syria in 2024" than they did in Libya when Muammar Gaddafi regime was ousted.
 
According to the Chatham House, the Trump foreign policy agenda is unlikely dominate the issue of ending conflict in the Middle East in 2025. But foreign relation experts say Trump will maintain strong political and security support for Israel.
 
UN aid teams say Gaza is now a graveyard and there is no escape.
 
The Economist ran an analysis headlined "the gap between global threats and American power will grow in 2025" saying as the Trump administration takes office in early 2025 the world will be in its most dangerous state since the cold war.