By Anisur Rahman
 
DHAKA, Dec 29, 2024 (BSS) - Several economists and think-tank generally foresee the global economy to remain resilient despite significant challenges in the coming 2025 while the inflation will ease further. But global financial watchdogs, lending and rating agencies are cautious fearing the global economy will be plunging into an unpredictable future.
 
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects global GDP growth of 3.3 percent, up from 3.2 percent in 2024, while the inflation to ease further, from 5.4 percent in 2024 to 3.8 percent in 2025, supported by the still restrictive stance of monetary policy in most countries.
 
But The Economist suggests when the rich world's central bankers celebrate the defeat of inflation the Western economies would face a new challenge: reducing deficits, by increasing taxes, cutting spending or boosting growth.
 
World Bank's chief economist Indermit Gill said "policymakers have cause to celebrate today" as a global recession could be avoided despite the steepest rise in global interest rates since the 1980s.
 
"But they would be wise to keep their eye on the ball: growth rates remain too slow for progress. Without stronger international cooperation and a concerted push for policies that advance shared prosperity, the world could become stuck in the slow lane," he wrote.
 
In another analysis, the Bretton Woods Institute says despite an improvement in near-term prospects, the global outlook remains subdued by historical standards predicting growth in 2024-25 to underperform its 2010s average in nearly 60 percent of economies, comprising over 80 percent of the global population.
 
The Group of Two or G-2 is an informal grouping of the US and China as far as global economy and trade is concerned as many consider them as two pillars to shape the world's economic course.
 
According to the World Knowledge Forum persistent high interest rates in the United States raised concerns about stagnation in employment and consumption, the other G-2 pillar China struggles to overcome domestic economic slowdown.
 
It says Europe, meanwhile, grapples with external uncertainties like conflicts in the Middle East and political instability as the continent also faces an uncertain economic outlook while it sees the developing countries are in an even direr situation.
 
According to global rating agency Moody Trump's reelection will bring significant changes to economic policy with its senior economist Stefan Angrick saying "higher (US) tariffs and the possibility of a renewed trade war point to a tumultuous period ahead for the world economy".
 
In the domestic front, the development fairy tale of the ousted Awami League regime is now being questioned as white paper by a state-appointed committee, published earlier this month, said the Bangladesh's development story was largely "hyped up" and that it is underpinned by "cooked-up" GDP figures.
 

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
 
According to technology experts tech companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) is to largely influence the global politics and economy in the coming year as AI models became more capable and useful as the last two years have been a period of adaptation and experimentation with it.
 
As per the opinion of the global think-tanks, AI governance will come into sharper focus in 2025 with countries balancing the urgent need for increased international cooperation while navigating rising geopolitical tensions and economic challenges. 

Tech analysts predicted the implementation of UN's Global Digital Compact and the proposed blueprint for AI governance could provide an opportunity for emerging powers to rewrite the rules and gain more influence.
 
Experts said Bangladesh is embracing AI as part of digitalization of the nation which is underway for over a decade while AI would work as an accelerator while the country is facing significant challenges with employment issues.
 
The World Economic Forum, however, said AI and Robots would create many jobs than they displace and because of AI and related technologies, economic growth will boost up than ever before and create many additional job opportunities.
 
 CLIMATE CHANGE
 
Being a lower lying country, deltaic Bangladesh is exposed to direct threat of climate change and related global warming while its socio-economic scenario is bound to make this South Asian nation to swallow the other adverse impacts of the phenomenon as well. 
 
Most experts including economic analysts have predicted the impact of climate change on the world economy is likely to become increasingly apparent in 2025, forcing mainstream economic policymakers in central banks and finance ministries to factor it into their day-to-day policies.
 
However, according to New Climate Institute renewable energy is making rapid progress in almost every high-emitting country though "too many countries are still clinging to the fossil fuels business model, especially for fossil gas".
 
This year, the CCPI 2025 paints a mixed picture: While 61 of the 64 countries have increased the share of renewable in their energy mix over the past five years, emission trends in 29 countries are still rated low or very low.
 
But experts warn even with accelerated climate action, continued warming and more extreme weather will stress adaptation efforts in Bangladesh, making it harder to protect livelihoods and even lives.