RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, Jan 10, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - The deaths of 1,300 pilgrims
during the hajj in Saudi Arabia last year underscored the urgent need to
mitigate dangers posed by extreme heat, with crowd management an essential
first step, analysts say.

Temperatures soared to 51.8 degrees Celsius (125 degrees Fahrenheit) in the
holy city of Makkah last June as 1.8 million worshippers took part in the
annual rites, one of the five pillars of Islam.

Saudi officials said 83 percent of the 1,301 recorded fatalities did not have
official hajj permits and were therefore unable to access amenities meant to
make the hajj more bearable, including air-conditioned tents.

It was a high-profile example of the havoc wrought by heat in 2024, which the
Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Friday was the hottest year ever
recorded.

The vast majority of hajj pilgrims come from abroad, and diplomats involved
in their countries' responses to last year's crisis told AFP at the time that
most deaths were heat-related.

While Riyadh has not detailed preparations for this year's pilgrimage --
still five months away -- authorities will no doubt want to avoid a repeat,
said Abderrezak Bouchama of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah International
Medical Research Center.

"I think they will above all reduce the risk of illegal pilgrims," said
Bouchama, who has worked with the Saudi government for more than three
decades on reducing heat deaths.

"I think they've learnt their lesson, so we have to see what kind of measures
they have taken for that."

Other steps to make heat less perilous, such as introducing wearable sensors
to quickly detect heat stress, are long-term projects that likely won't be
rolled out by June, Bouchama added.

Saudi officials did not respond to AFP's requests for comment.

- 'Perfect storm' -

The hajj takes place over five to six days, mostly outdoors.

It has seen a number of disasters over the years, including in 2015 when a
stampede during the "stoning the devil" ritual in Mina killed up to 2,300
people.

Responses in the past have "typically focused on infrastructure improvements
and crowd control measures", said Karim Elgendy, an associate fellow at the
Chatham House think tank.

"Based on this pattern, we would expect authorities to approach the 2025 hajj
with enhanced heat mitigation infrastructure and potentially stricter
capacity controls."

Hajj permits are allocated to countries on a quota system and distributed to
individuals by lottery.

But even for those who can obtain them, the steep costs spur many to attempt
the hajj without a permit, though they risk arrest and deportation if caught.

The introduction of a general tourism visa in 2019 has made it easier for all
foreigners, including permit-less pilgrims, to enter the country.

Sealing off entry points to Mecca is "very difficult", meaning Saudi
authorities should expect irregular pilgrims again this year, said Umer
Karim, an expert on Saudi politics at the University of Birmingham.

Saudi authorities "need to make arrangements not just for registered numbers
but also for additional numbers", particularly cooling and emergency health
facilities, he said.

Yet Elgendy stressed last year's deaths were the product of "an unprecedented
perfect storm of environmental conditions", not just a strain on resources
caused by unregistered pilgrims.

On top of high temperatures, "the summer solstice timing meant pilgrims faced
maximum sun exposure during outdoor rituals", he said.

The hajj's timing is determined by the Islamic lunar calendar and will move
forward about 11 days in the Gregorian calendar, meaning this year it will
again fall during the scorching Saudi summer.

- 'Extreme danger' -

Authorities were pursuing heat-mitigation measures at holy sites long before
last year's deaths.

Near the Kaaba, the black cubic structure in the Grand Mosque in Makkah
towards which all Muslims pray, air-conditioned spaces allow pilgrims to cool
off, and a climate-controlled pathway connects the hills of Safa and Marwa
inside the mosque compound.

Since 2023, roads used by the faithful have been covered in a white cooling
material that Saudi officials say reduces the temperature of the asphalt by
20 percent.

Volunteers also distribute water and umbrellas and offer advice to pilgrims
on avoiding hyperthermia, while misting systems and air-conditioned shopping
malls provide temporary relief between prayers.

"Air conditioning is the only effective measure to protect against extreme
heat," said Bouchama, calling for mobile cooling units to be deployed among
pilgrims.

"Drinking water helps to rehydrate, but it is not enough. You have to get out
of the heat."

Even if such steps aren't in place by this year's hajj in June, they are
still worth pursuing, he said.

While the pilgrimage will eventually shift to the cooler winter season,
relief will be temporary.

A 2019 study published by the journal Geophysical Research Letters said
because of climate change and the timing of the hajj, heat stress for
pilgrims will exceed the "extreme danger threshold" from 2047 to 2052, and
2079 to 2086.