By Golam Moin Uddin

DHAKA, Feb 7, 2025 (BSS) - The prices of commodities including essential items are now in tolerable state while the supply chain is normal in the kitchen markets across the country thanks to the various initiatives and policy measures of the interim government.

This reasonable price and usual supply side of the commodities and vegetables are also evident in the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) of January as the general point-to-point inflation dipped below the double digit to 9.94 percent last month (January) from 10.89 percent in December, 2024.

According to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the decline was mainly driven by a fall in food inflation.

In January 2025, the point-to-point food inflation declined to 10.72 percent, down from 12.92 percent in December, 2024, the BBS data showed.

Meanwhile, the non-food inflation rate showed a slight increase reaching 9.32 percent in January, up from 9.26 percent in December, 2024.

The point-to-point inflation rate both in the urban and rural areas also declined last month.

In the rural areas, it was 10.18 percent in January which was 11.09 percent in December, 2024.

On the other hand, the point-to-point inflation rate in the urban areas in January, 2025 was 9.89 percent which was 10.84 percent in December, 2024.

If the inflationary situation of the last six months is considered after the ouster of Awami League government on August 5, 2024, it can be perceived that the general inflation is now subduing gradually and it is more or less in a stable shape.

Beginning this fiscal year with a high general inflation rate of 11.66 percent in July, the month when the anti-discriminatory student movement gained momentum and thus led to the ouster of autocrat Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, the inflation rate then slightly eased to 10.49 percent in August, 2024.

In continuation of this, the inflation rate then came down further at 9.92 percent in September followed by a slight increase of 10.87 percent in October, subsequently 11.38 percent in November. 

After that, the general inflation rate came down at 10.89 percent in December, 2024 before it dipped below the double digit in last month.

Talking to media on February 4 at Bangladesh Secretariat, Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed expressed his optimism that the general point-to-point inflation rate will come down to between 6 to 7 percent by June.

“It will take another two to three months for inflation to decline as government measures take effect. If we can bring price hikes down to 6-7 percent by June, we will consider it satisfactory,” he said.

Salehuddin said further steps would be taken to stabilise the prices of essential commodities during the upcoming holy month of Ramadan.

Meanwhile, Commerce Adviser Sk. Bashir Uddin while speaking at an event on February 4 in Cox’s Bazar reassured that the prices of commodities would not increase during Ramadan.

He also said that a detailed discussion was held recently in this regard at a business conference.

“Everyone is working together. So, I hope that the prices of goods in the market will not increase by any means during Ramadan. The supply of oil, sugar, dates, chickpeas, fish, chicken, eggs and seasonal vegetables will remain intact,” he added.

Talking to BSS recently, Dr Zahid Hussain, a prominent figure and former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka Office, expressed optimism that the general point-to-point inflation rate could be reduced in between 6 to 7 percent in the next fiscal year (FY26) if the country does not face natural or political calamities.

“My projection is that it will be possible to bring down inflation within 6 to 7 percent if there is no major disruption. Prices of several commodities are still increasing. The prices of essential items like rice, lentils, and fish, which significantly impact the common people, need to be reduced,” he added.

Ministries, agencies and industry insiders concerned said imports of most essential commodities ahead of Ramadan increased in the first six months of the current fiscal year (2024-25), with the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC) assuming that the prices of such items would remain stable.

In a report submitted to the commerce ministry last month, the commission identified 16 essential commodities that see higher demand during Ramadan as people prepare special dishes, snacks, and traditional foods.

The BTTC reported that imports of lentils, crude soybean oil, refined sugar, and chickpeas increased between July 1, 2024 and January 5, 2025 compared to the previous year.

Import of chickpeas, one of the most consumed items during the month, surged by 188 percent to 48,980 tons between July 1, 2024 and January 5, 2025 compared to the previous year.

Among edible oils, private refiners imported 40 percent more crude soybean oil, reaching 3.84 lakh tons during the first six months of the fiscal year. 

However, palm oil imports dipped by 27 percent to 7.11 lakh tones compared to the previous year.
The BTTC stated that the government's decision, particularly the reduction of import duty and Value Added Tax (VAT), along with various initiatives to keep essential commodity prices affordable in the local market, positively impacted imports and supply chain.

The BTTC indicated that edible oil prices may fall during Ramadan due to the downward trend in international prices and reductions in import duties and taxes.

In an effort to boost imports and control prices, the interim government waived customs duties on different essential goods, including edible oil, sugar, onions, potatoes, and dates. 
Besides, the foreign exchange crisis eased up, clearing the way for opening Letters of Credit (LCs).

Talking to BSS here recently, Shamima Sultana, a resident in the city's Shewrapara, said that the supply of commodities including essential items is stable in the kitchen markets surrounding the area.

She, however, suggested enforcing strict monitoring and vigilance by the concerned agencies during the Holy Month of Ramadan so that the prices and supply of essential items remain stable during the month.

According to the latest data of the Ministry of Commerce’s cell on reviewing price of commodities and forecast, based on the figures of the TCB, the price of commodities, which increased in the local market till January 30 compared to the previous week, are soybean oil (loose) and chickpeas.
On the other hand, the price of commodities, which declined in the local market till January 30 compared to the previous week, are rice, packaged flour, loose palm oil, local and imported onion, local and imported garlic, local ginger, broiler chicken and sugar.

Besides, the prices of packaged atta (flour), soybean oil (1 litre can), lentils, imported ginger, Ruhi fish, Hilsha fish, beef, dates (normal standard), eggs and salt remained stable.